Todd Bowles Retained: The ‘Fourth Season’ Data That Likely Saved His Job

Zach Fowler1 week agoLast Updated: Friday, January 9th, 2026 11:38 AM

Key Takeaways

The Decision: The Glazer family officially retains Todd Bowles for the 2026 season despite a 2025 “implosion.”
The ‘Arians’ Factor: Senior Advisor Bruce Arians, in the final days of his contract, likely vouched for Bowles based on his own coaching history.
Historical Precedent: Ron Rivera (2014) and Arians (2016) both survived rough fourth seasons before bouncing back.
The Risk: Unlike Rivera and Arians, who finished their slump years strong, Bowles’ 2025 squad struggled to the finish line.

TAMPA BAY — The confusion is palpable across Tampa. Fans are asking a collective question: Why did the Glazer family retain a head coach who just presided over a fourth-year collapse? The answer likely isn’t found in the 2025 game tape, but in the history books—and the voice of a man about to leave the building.

Bruce Arians, currently in the final days of his contract as a Buccaneers senior advisor, appears to be the linchpin. If you assume Arians didn’t go to bat for Todd Bowles in recent meetings with ownership, think again. The data suggests Arians likely leaned on a specific historical trend: The “Fourth Season Slump” isn’t always fatal.

The ‘Fourth Season’ Anomaly

Arians has lived this scenario. In 2016, his fourth year coaching the Arizona Cardinals, he was coming off a stellar 13-3 record and a postseason win. Expectations were sky-high. Instead, injuries mounted, special teams faltered, and the Cardinals dropped to a mediocre 7-8-1.

The heat on Arians was intense. Criticism centered on his refusal to fire special teams coach Amos Jones. Arians’ defense of his staff was absolute, bordering on defiant:

“They’re my players, so if I’m going to fire him, I’ll fire myself.”
— Bruce Arians, following the 2016 season

It is highly probable Arians reminded the Glazers of this timeline. He survived that rough fourth year, returned to coach Arizona in 2017 (going .500 with three different quarterbacks), and eventually retired before leading Tampa Bay to a Super Bowl. The message? One bad year doesn’t erase coaching pedigree.

The Ron Rivera Parallel

The argument for patience gains more weight when looking at Ron Rivera’s tenure in Carolina. The parallels are striking:

2013: Rivera leads Carolina to a dominant 12-4 record.
2014 (Year 4): The team regresses significantly, finishing 7-8-1.
The Outcome: Ownership keeps Rivera. In 2015, the Panthers go 15-1 and reach the Super Bowl.

In the unpredictable NFC South, a losing record doesn’t always eliminate a team from contention—Rivera’s 2014 squad actually won the division and beat Arians’ Cardinals in the playoffs.

The Critical Difference for 2026

While the history provides a convenient shield for Bowles, there is a glaring hole in the comparison. Both Arians (2016) and Rivera (2014) saw their teams rally late in the year. Arians closed with back-to-back wins over division rivals. Rivera won four straight to steal a playoff spot.

Bowles’ 2025 Buccaneers did not share that resilience. They stumbled to the finish, raising valid concerns about locker room buy-in and momentum.

What This Means for the Bucs

The decision to keep Bowles for 2026 may be Bruce Arians’ final victory as a Buccaneer. By convincing the Glazers that a rough fourth season is a hurdle rather than a dead end, he has bought his successor one last life.

However, history also offers a warning. Rivera and Arians had built up significant equity with prior dominance. Bowles enters 2026 with a shorter leash and a fanbase that demands immediate correction. If the “implosion” of 2025 bleeds into Week 1 of 2026, history won’t be enough to save him again.