NEW YORK — August 2, 2025 — Shares of Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE: PM) edged lower on Friday, closing at $162.96, a decline of 0.66% on the day, even as the company announced a raised dividend and reaffirmed upbeat earnings guidance for fiscal year 2025. The slight dip reflects investor caution amid a mixed set of signals surrounding the tobacco and nicotine giant’s performance.
Dividend Confidence Doesn’t Shield from Revenue Miss
Philip Morris declared a quarterly dividend of $1.35 per share, reaffirming its long-standing shareholder-first capital strategy.[1][2][3] The new payout reflects a 3.3% yield based on current share prices, translating to an annualized return of $5.40 per share.[4] This move highlights confidence in the firm’s cash flow strength, even as parts of its business model undergo disruption.
The company also raised its full-year EPS forecast to a range of $7.43–$7.56, nudging past the analyst consensus of $7.462.[4] In its most recent quarterly report, Philip Morris posted an EPS of $1.91, surpassing expectations of $1.86.[4][5] Yet despite those beats, the market has reacted coolly—largely due to the firm’s revenue miss earlier in the quarter.
On July 22, the stock slipped after Q2 revenue came in at $10.14 billion, falling short of the expected $10.33 billion despite marking a 7.1% increase year-over-year.[4][5][6]
Smoke-Free Strategy Gains Traction — But Not Without Headwinds
A critical storyline for Philip Morris remains the transition away from combustible cigarettes. Traditional cigarette shipment volumes fell 1.5% in Q2, continuing a long-term decline.[6] However, this was offset by strong gains in smoke-free products, which grew 11.8% in shipment volume during the same period.[6]
Smoke-free products now account for 41% of net revenues — a milestone in PMI’s pivot strategy, led by brands like IQOS (heated tobacco) and ZYN (nicotine pouches).[1][7]
ZYN Shows Explosive U.S. Growth
The ZYN brand continues to dominate U.S. retail shelves, registering a 26% increase in consumer offtake during Q2, and a striking 36% growth in June alone.[7][8] The surge follows earlier manufacturing constraints, which the company says are now resolved.[9] With flavored pouches attracting younger adult demographics, PMI is racing to increase capacity and expand market share across the nicotine pouch segment — one of the fastest-growing categories in tobacco alternatives.
International Expansion Drives IQOS Uptake
Philip Morris’s heated tobacco product IQOS continues gaining traction across Europe and Japan, where the company is focused on converting adult smokers to reduced-risk products. Market share gains in Germany, Italy, and South Korea highlight the platform’s global growth potential.[1]
Still, the company faces friction abroad. PMI has flagged supply chain issues in Turkey and rising illicit cigarette activity in Indonesia as key drags on its traditional tobacco segment heading into the second half of 2025.[10]
Investor Sentiment Mixed as PMI Navigates Transition Era
The company’s stock performance reflects the push-pull dynamic now defining the industry: optimism around smoke-free innovations versus challenges in legacy markets and soft revenue prints. With a 52-week range of $113.15 to $186.69, the current share price leaves room for both bullish and bearish interpretations of Philip Morris’s path forward.
Analysts remain split — some are encouraged by the company’s aggressive transformation and dividend strength, while others question whether volume growth in smoke-free categories can consistently outpace erosion in cigarette demand. Regulatory shifts, consumer behavior trends, and global taxation policies are also likely to remain wildcards for Philip Morris and its peers.
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